Counting The Tokyo Laps ⏱️

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Compiled by David Melly and Paul Snyder

The Men’s 1500m Final, Every Move & Outcome Predicted 🔮

Lap Count readers and middle-distance runners everywhere, rejoice! The men’s 1500m final is set to go off in just a few hours, at 9:20am ET, assuming you’re reading this bleary-eyed and hot off the presses. It’s probably the most buzzed about event of this entire championship cycle. (It’s certainly the most buzzed about event in this newsletter.) Despite the extraordinarily notable absence of several bona fide medal threats in the final, that still holds true.

The first two rounds played out about how you’d expect them to: tactical affairs where the top spots were determined by fractions of a second, largely on the strength of each athletes’ final 200 meters. What wasn’t so expected was just how many of the guys involved in the podium conversation all season long won’t be racing today.

Jakob Ingebrigtsen never looked like himself and was never truly in contention during his opening salvo from this year’s World Championships, failing to advance to even the semis. In that same heat, Phanuel Koech, who up until… well, the moment he fell in that race… looked like someone capable of playing spoiler. Unfortunately, he was not advanced forward as his fall was ruled incidental. 2023 bronze medalist Narve Nordas didn’t make it out of the first semifinal, and the man with the fastest time of the year, Azeddine Habz, also failed to advance out of the heats.

Then the biggest shock of all came in the second heat of the semis, where reigning Olympic gold medalist Cole Hocker was forced to overcome some questionable tactics via a little more rubbing than racing, and was summarily DQd for his physical pass of a fading Robert Farken. For fans of Hocker, fans of American distance running, and even just fans hoping for as interesting a final as possible, this was a huge blow.

By the letter of the law, it was a fair read of the rules, but this is also a championship where the officials have been mercifully relaxed about false-start enforcement, pulling out yellow cards in the sprints multiple times to allow the stars to run. From the perspective of track-as-entertainment-product, advancing Hocker and Koech would make for a more interesting final. As much as we like to think the administration of track and field justice should be completely objective, there’s also a case to be made for making a judgment call for the benefit of the fans.

To recap, let’s look at it this way. Here’s the top 8 finishers from last year’s Olympic final:

1. Cole Hocker – DQ

2. Josh Kerr – in it to win it

3. Yared Nuguse – didn’t make Tokyo

4. Jakob Ingebrigtsen – out in the prelim

5. Hobbs Kessler – didn’t make Tokyo

6. Niels Laros – the favorite?

7. Narve Nordas – knocked out in the semi

8. Pietro Arese – knocked out in the semi

And the top 8 times this year:

1. Azeddine Habz – knocked out in prelims

2. Phanuel Koech – fall in the prelims

3. George Mills – running the 5000m only

4. Festus Lagat – didn’t make Tokyo

5. Niels Laros

6. Stefan Nillessen – knocked out in semi

7. Isaac Nader – long-shot dark horse

8. Josh Kerr 

Alas, the show must go on, the field is set with some damn good athletes, and things are likely to play out a little differently, less Ingebrigtsen-ly than global finals of recent years. But even with the typical script now out the window, the smartest middle-distance soothsayers know that there’s still a fairly predictable race about to play out….

As is the case in every elite men’s 1500m race that does not feature Ingebrigtsen, each man in this field believes his best shot at victory is via a ferocious kick over the final 150m, because each man in this field is convinced he is the best kicker in the race. Accordingly, the gun will sound, and imploring “you lead” glances will be exchanged as the men stagger forward along the straight. Bodies will be spread out across four lanes of track, until one man reluctantly assumes pole position… maybe it’s Neil Gourley, or Tim Cheruiyot, or another more experienced finalist who believes he can stay out of trouble by winding things up from the front.

After a chaotic but hopefully trip-free 150 meters, someone will assume the lead and the veterans—probably Kerr and a revitalized Jake Wightman—will settle in on the leader’s right shoulder. Everyone else is making a concerted effort to tuck onto the rail in or near last place, with guys like Isaac Nader likely to bring up the rear in the “kicker’s spot.” It’ll be interesting to say whether the middle of the field keys off Kerr or Laros as a sign of who the runners themselves think is the top dog.

We’ll hit 600m without any notable changes in order or any indication that despite everyone being visibly antsy, a move is about to be made. 700m in 1:44. Still nothing. Then bam. As the 800m split registers as 1:59-low, someone will second guess his kicking ability, freak out and swing into lane three, and begin to press. Things immediately string out, with Laros and Kerr being the quickest to move to stay in the pocket of the leader. Although we haven’t lost anyone out the back yet, we do hit 1,000m in 2:27—that was a 27-high, and we don’t appear to be slowing.

Here, one of the Cheruiyots—Tim or Reynold—may make an early move just before the bell. Guys like Jake Wightman or Andrew Coscoran will appear to be totally out of it at this point, but don’t be fooled: they’ve simply learned to measure their effort as places shuffle ahead of them. The bell will clang around 2:38, maybe even 2:40, setting up a blistering final lap.

Now we start to see the effort showing in some guys’ faces. T. Cheruiyot will stoically assume the Jakob role at the helm, and though his expression hasn’t changed, he’s really leaning into it now. Kerr is directly behind him, riding the rail. Depending on how good the rest of the field is feeling, this is Laros’s moment of greatest vulnerability, as his tendency to run half a lane wide of the leader could send him out into lane three on the backstretch if there’s a bunch of guys in contention. It’ll be a jumbled mess, and at least half the field will be straining so hard to get to their spots at 1300m that they’ll be too gassed to take advantage of it.

At 200m to go, Josh Kerr will strike. Depending on whether the Jake Wightman stock pays off, he may be on his countrymen’s heels. Laros may be a stride or two back looking fairly uncomfortable. Closers like Nader will be dodging bodies as the lactic-filled legs ahead of him start to tie up. But unless he’s looking to swing into lane six, there’s just nowhere to pass.

Tim Cheruiyot has cracked with 75m to go—he’s had a great comeback year but it just won’t be enough against this field. Reynold Cheruiyot is perhaps the biggest X factor in the field —he could be fading here, or finding another gear. The most likely outcome is, however, is that by the time the field arrives in the homestretch, it’s Kerr vs. Laros as the class of the field tests their true upper limits.

Behind them, it’s a blanket finish for the third medal. Don’t be surprised to see an experienced kicker like Wightman, Nader, or Coscoran finding the inside lane as others swing wide from fatigue and coming out on the podium. Without Faith Kipyegon to string things out in the men’s race, there will be many more bodies all jockeying to be in the same place at the same time.

The ultimate outcome? If recent form is to be believed, Laros will be breaking the tape in 3:31 or 3:32, on the back of a crazy-sounding 52 second lap. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Kerr well clear of the field, but that depends on him not cracking badly in the battle against Laros. After that, we’re forced to go to the body-horror distortion of a photo finish… and the bronze medalist will probably surprise you. Maybe it’s Coscoran, or Nader, who did win a Diamond League earlier this season, or even Jonah Koech, who refuses to let a bum hamstring keep him down.

The best man in the field usually wins, but the way it transpires is simply track and field at its most fun and unpredictable! This time next week, we’ll either be talking about Laros’s coronation as the king of the event, or how Kerr’s medal shelf stacks up against the all-time greats, or eating a huge helping of crow when World champion Samuel Pihlström makes us all look like idiots.

No matter how it plays out, what a race it’ll be.

Maybe Watching Sports Before The Work Day Starts Is Actually Good? ☕️

Occasionally, being an American sports fan on the East Coast is a drag. Case in point: last weekend’s boxing match on Netflix that much of the head injury community was fired up about online? It didn’t even start for us until after midnight.

This newsletter possesses a distinctly Eastern-Standard-Time bias, and in our ideal world, the rest of the U.S. would simply get behind earlier-than-normal start times for sporting events they host. But we’re reasonable people, too—and we’re open to alternative solutions. Such as the fantastic option we’re all currently kicking the tires on taking place in Tokyo.

Since the action got underway at Worlds late last week, early-ish risers all along the eastern seaboard have been able to start their mornings with the highest quality track and field imaginable while they sip their morning coffee. And folks, let us be the first to tell you: it kicks ass.

In general, the biggest, most hyped-up finals at Worlds are all taking place in the evening—primetime!—in Tokyo. And that means here in the U.S., most of us are able to watch otherworldly performances while wearing our pajamas without losing too much sleep.

We’d imagine that if you’re a fan of Jamaican sprinting, you walked around the rest of your Sunday feeling like you’d chugged two quad-shot Americanos (...an octo-shot?). Tina Clayton securing silver—her first global medal—in personal best fashion is a phenomenal result on its own. And with the passing of the torch firmly underway (Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, competing in her final World Championship, claimed fifth), the event looks to be in good hands. Shericka Jackson finished one spot off the podium, but gave Julien Alfred a scare, and in the process gave fans some reassurance that she’ll be a threat in the 200m. A few moments later, Oblique Seville and Kishane Thompson going 1-2 in the men’s 100m dash was absolutely huge for a nation with an incredibly rich tradition in the event on the men’s side, but without a ton to celebrate since Usain Bolt’s retirement. Both Seville and Thompson have been talked about as promising young talents for a while now, and on the biggest stage, at the same time, they made good on that promise. 

In Monday morning’s men’s steeple, a dawdling pace kept the door propped open for all manner of kickers and hard closers, and with about 50m left in the race, it became clear that Soufiane El Bakkali would soon regret not taking control of things sooner. The event’s reigning champ—four times over—posted up at the rear of the pack and stayed there as the race trended in the direction of being almost 50 seconds slower than the world record. And even though El Bakkali can close with the best of them, he couldn’t respond to the otherworldly gear shift of New Zealander and noted podcast host Georgie Beamish, who stormed to his first outdoor world title. (Kiwi track fans are probably still experiencing sleep disruption after that one; meanwhile, we had a full and spirit-dampening workday to help lower our cortisol levels before bedtime.)

It feels weird to put a semi-final on the same tier as a final, but what else can you really do with Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone’s dismantling of the old American 400m record? SML seemed to treat her semi like just that, a semi, looking totally composed the first 200m, opening up but not sweating the final curve, and even shutting things down with about 50m to go… yet the clock read 48.29! Sanya Richards-Ross ran her 48.70 19 years ago (also on September 16th), and McLaughlin-Levrone handily bettered what was an insurmountable mark for nearly two decades without appearing to try. Thursday’s final could also mean the new record doesn’t even survive the week.

Most of the finals we’ve watched live in our early morning have left us feeling like we’ve snorted a line of espresso ground coffee beans after. And don’t get us wrong—that’s a tremendous way to start the day. But sometimes, you want something a little gentler; the sensation of easing into your day feeling invigorated but calm; something that feels like an iced strawberry matcha latte with a smoother caffeine release and some added sweetness, something like watching Faith Kipyegon do exactly what you expected Faith Kipyegon to do. She led from the gun and never for a moment was her grip on that first position remotely in jeopardy. It’s thrilling to watch the best to ever do it run a picture perfect championship 1500m, even if that outcome was basically a foregone conclusion. The battle for the other medals was less predictable, but perennial Faith-chaser Jess Hull held on for bronze, while Kipyegon compatriot Dorcus Ewoi snuck past her for silver, a major career statement for her.

Now, again assuming you’re reading this closely upon receiving it, plop your ass into your favorite chair, cup your favorite little mug like a cartoon bear wearing a sleeping cap, and settle in for approximately three hours of high octane track and field action all before your day really even starts!

The Longer Races Have Been The Most Exciting So Far… How? 🤔

Everyone thinks they know how to save track and field these days. And one thing that every recent effort seems to have in common is that they axe the long distance events to try and entice the TikTok generation to stay attuned to a series of ten second highlights strung together into a track meet.

And yet, all four 10,000m and marathon finals in Tokyo have been among the most exhilarating spectator events thus far! They’ve been weird, tactically interesting affairs, where unlikely athletes have led for large chunks, and kick finishes determined the ultimate pecking orders after either six or 26 miles of preamble. In a sense, they’ve felt more like cycling races— which we are on the record as loving —and that’s almost entirely because the weather in Tokyo this time of year is lousy for fast, time-trial-style racing.

But that’s not the only reason.

In both the men’s and women’s 10,000m races, the home crowd was treated to at least a few laps led by Japanese athletes. For those in the stadium, that was cause to become downright raucous. And for those athletes… hell yeah. Why not lead a little bit? Unless you’ve got the wheels to factor into the final 200m with eventual champs Beatrice Chebet or Jimmy Gressier, your shot at actually winning is basically non-existent, so why not play rabbit and soak up the adoring roar of tens of thousands of your fellow citizens. Those laps leading the field will likely be a lasting career highlight and personal favorite memory of your time competing.

The women’s race was determined by a long, slow squeezing of the pace, followed by a frantic final lap, and wasn’t technically slow, slow. But Chebet wasn’t running for a sub-29-minute finish either, which meant that athletes who, on paper, shouldn’t have given her a scare down the homestretch—like eventual silver medalist Nadia Battocletti, who set a new Italian record in the race of 30:38.2—could shake things up and even beat somebody like Gudaf Tsegay, who wound up in third. There was even a hair’s breadth of a moment where Battocletti seemed to hang with Chebet into the homestretch, and while the eventual outcome was predictable, for a second or two… anything was possible.

The men’s race was a tactical master class, both in terms of how slow the field let it get, and how unexpected the final outcome was. Two kilometers in, the fellas were eight seconds slower than the women’s pace at the same point. As a result, the athletes who run their best off a hot pace, followed by a long press to the finish—your Grant Fishers, if you will—failed to shake the sorts of wildcard athletes whose last 100m is world class if they’re given the chance. And in a replay of the Diamond League final, Gressier rocketed past the field for the win. Yomif Kejelcha, a guy with shiny PBs but only one prior global medal, proved some doubters wrong with another silver, and Sweden’s Andrea Almgren charged for third.

Holding a global championship in a hot and humid location where local fans are passionate and local athletes are willing to lead, even if it means potentially hurting their final placement… that’s a recipe for interesting distance races. But the real innovation on display in Tokyo is that the marathons both finished inside National Stadium, and amazingly, both marathons came down to a sprint finish on the track.

The women’s race was led by American Susanna Sullivan for over 25 kilometers, who was joined by Jess McClain for a good chunk of the first half. She avoided the pacing fluctuations imposed on the chase pack by eventual medalists Peres Jepchirchir of Kenya and Tigst Assefa of Ethiopia. Every passing minute, it seemed like maybe the breakaway would miraculously hold. Sullivan was ultimately reeled back in, but much like in cycling, an unexpected solo bid for glory makes for just one more intriguing storyline to follow. Jepchirchir and Assefa continued trading barbs from the helm, shedding all other members of the chase pack until they were all alone under the looming shadow of National Stadium. 

By the time they hit the track, Assefa—a former 800m specialist with a sub-two-minute lifetime best—must have been licking her chops. But it was Jepchirchir whose afterburners propelled her to victory, 2:24:43 to 2:24:45. Behind them, carnage in the chase pack sent several athletes into a near crawl or to DNF and, humongous surprise bronze medalist Julia Paternain of Uruguay came through next, unaware she had finished so highly until after she crossed the line. In terms of interesting marathons, it doesn’t really get much better than that.

But the men’s race managed to produce an even more dramatic finish. The earlier portions of the race lacked a bold move from an underdog athlete to break things open, as we saw in the women’s marathon, so there was a sturdy lead pack of 30-40 men for about an hour of running. Though the pace was a far cry from what most of the hopeful medalists have run before, it was honest enough to be a classic race of attrition, and with seven kilometers  to go, nine men were still in the running. 

With every subsequent kilometer, it felt like a new dude would drop, until only three were in contention upon entering the stadium: Italy’s Iliass Aouani, Germany’s Amanal Petros, and Tanzania’s Alphonce Simbu. Not exactly the usual suspects, as all three Ethiopians would DNF and the highest Kenyan finisher was 16th. The podium was wrapped up, but who would grab what medal could not have been less clear. Petros made the first true bid for the win, and Simbu responded while Aouani clearly had no more gears left. Even with 100m left, Petros held onto the lead and looked poised to expand upon it. But Simbu mustered up one last push, one that ultimately bested Petros, who dove across the finish line. Simbu’s margin of victory was 0.03 seconds; closer than in the men’s 100m.

Obviously, the marathons finishing on the track made for a great spectacle. Did they cause the track-style finish by the nature of the course? That seems silly, but it’s hard to imagine the medalists waiting so long to battle out the final pecking order on a conventional road finishing race. Whatever the cause, despite the gold medal being decided over a matter of meters, the entertainment provided lasted hours.

More News From The Track And Field World 📰

– Unfortunately, there was a lot of doping news this past week, so let’s bang that out in one bullet point: 1500m medal contender Diribe Welteji of Ethiopia was ruled ineligible to compete at Worlds after being provisionally suspended for allegedly refusing an out-of-competition doping test; Erriyon Knighton is now serving a four-year doping ban—the American tested positive for epitrenbolone in 2024; he contested that finding and was initially successful, but WADA appealed that verdict, and ultimately prevailed; and trail runner Joyline Chepngeno has been issued a two-year ban following a positive test for triamcinolone acetonide—the Kenyan athlete’s recent win at UTMB’s OCC race has been vacated.

– But it’s not all doom and gloom, doping wise! 2025’s fastest male marathoner, Sabastian Sawe of Kenya, has announced he will voluntarily undergo at least 25 doping tests in the leadup to the Berlin Marathon. Sawe issued a statement that included this line: “By taking this step, I hope that I not only can serve as an example for other athletes, but that people will truly try to address the issue and to try to find lasting solutions”

– Two beloved and influential American distance running coaches—Al Carius and Jack Daniels—passed away last week.

– Start spreading the news… Eliud Kipchoge and Sifan Hasan have been added to the New York City Marathon pro fields!

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